This one seems like a yawner on paper, but you just never know how a team is going to play when they come off a bye-week.

1. The Vikings have had some time off to re-focus which is good.
……But they haven’t played for two weeks and could be a bit rusty, perhaps not quite as precise, etc. which is bad.

2. They have had time to heal some injuries to key players such as Antoine Winfield, Percy Harvin Steve Hutchinson, Darius Reynaud , Brett Favre etc. Which is good.
……But football players being creatures of habit, the two week lay-off could cause players to get out of sync, get lazy, form bad habits, etc. which is bad.

Overall, the ups of the bye week will ordinarily outweigh the downs. It usually gives a team an initial adrenaline “rush” which carries through the first few series, which can be just the edge that can tilt two closely matched teams. It can also take the same amount of time to shake off the rust of two weeks inactivity. So who’s advantage is anyone’s guess. Let’s break this down a bit more. The “Rush” we talked about works great on defense where strength, and speed are often the difference between success and failure. There is less precision needed on defense. So, the bye week usually gives the defense an advantage. So, if I’m Bred Childress, I defer if I win the toss.

Overall, the Vikings have an excellent record coming out of the bye. I personally feel the mental and physical edge it provides ( especially being at home ) hugely outweighs the disadvantages.

But lets break down some key aspects in this game.

1. Minnesota’s offensive line vs. Detroit’s front seven – Detroit has an average front, but a very good line backing corps led by Ernie Sims. They will have their hands full trying to contain Adrian Peterson this week-end.

The Viking offensive line, although reputed to be one of the leagues best, still hasn’t convinced me. They are not as good as last year at opening up holes, especially up the middle because John Sullivan is simply NOT Matt Birk. He’s solid. He’s improving. He’s showing superb leadership. But… he’s NOT Matt Birk.

Phil Loadholt is the real deal in the run game. If his footwork develops and he eliminates the mental errors he could be a pro-bowler !

Adrian Peterson is a man who is due for a stratospheric day. A week off and a hungry offensive line could spell trouble for the Lion’s. I see the Purple Jesus having a monster day.

2. Brett Favre vs. Detroit’s secondary – If Favre has time, this is no contest. However, this is precisely the kind of game where Favre has traditionally lost focus and tended to force bad passes into coverage. If Favre is under control against the 31st ranked secondary, then
this one could be over early.

3. Kicking: Jason Hanson is outstanding, he’s 11 for 13 in FG’s this season, and perfect on extra points. He also has a plus leg and thus deadly inside of 55 yards. Ryan Longwell is statistically very close to Hansen but has a slightly lesser range.

4. Detroit’s offensive line vs. The Vikings front seven: Detroit has a young and not-so-up and coming O- line. They have had a difficult time finding cohesion because of injuries and lack of depth. They will neeed to play way over their heads to keep Stafford upright in this one.

The Minnesota front four should be hungry enough to shut down Smith or whoever else the Lions throw at them. They should also be able to put enough pressure on Stafford to cause the youngster to force a few mistakes. The return of Winfield means that the Vikings can take away the short routes which are really Detroit’s best chance to control the ball.

5. Matt Stafford vs. the Vikings secondary – If Winfield plays, and all indications are he will, then this could be a long day for the Lion offense. Stafford has a great arm, but he’s still learning how to use it at this level and the game itself still hasn’t slowed down for him. If Vikings defensive coordinator Leslie Frasier has his way, he will be harassed and knocked down constantly. Look for him to attack Stafford and this inexperienced line with numerous blitz packages in order to cause havoc and confusion. If Detroit falls behind early, and they are forced to pass, the secondary should have a field day. Look for at least two to three interceptions and much rejoicing.

But….. if they can manage to hold close, and the line provides adequate protection ( Big If’s ) then Calvin Johnson could help keep the Lion’s offense on the field and possibly make an impact play or two. In Johnson, the Lions have quite possibly the best big play receiver in the game, so this match-up is worth watching.

6. Coaching: With a bye week to prepare, If Childress doesn’t have the Vikings ready for the Lions, considering they have few playmakers and a beat up defense that is 31st against the pass and 26th overall, then he should be covered in honey and staked to an ant mound.
Detroit: So far, this team hasn’t quit and that’s saying something at 1-7. They are usually able to stay close but just don’t have the horses to close out games. Look for that trend to change this week-end as I see all signs pointing to a blow-out.

Prediction: Peterson will be huge and Favre should easily pick this weak secondary apart. Look for Bernard Berrian to get untracked while both Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin should be solid. The Vikes should be able to control both scrimmage lines and rack up a lot of yardage, points and time of possession.

Matt Stafford will be running for his life and the defense will make several big plays. Look for Jared Allen to have an impact early and often and E.J. Henderson will most likely lead the team in tackles as usual.

Detroit’s best hope is to they can control the ball ( Fat Chance ) enough to keep things interesting and their defense makes enough big plays ( Slim to none ) to steal it late. If they can stay close enough for it to come down to a late field goal, then Hansen is deadly within 55 yards.

I don’t see the latter happening. -

Vikings – 31
Lions – 13