johncarlson1

The 8-1 Vikings are hosting the 3-6 Seahawks on Sunday.  More than the Lions or Rams, this could be a true trap game for the Vikings because the Seahawks are a better team than their record suggests… The Lions and Rams are not.

So, let’s break this down a bit and take a look at what can be expected on Sunday.

 

VIKINGS RUN GAME (Advantage:  Vikings)

The Vikings have the 10th ranked rushing offense in the league, despite teams still focusing on stopping Adrian Peterson.  The Seahawks are ranked 11th against the run, but part of that may have to do with their pass defense making things so darn easy for teams to find success through the air.

Peterson is averaging a whopping 5.1 yards per carry while the Seahawks are giving up 4.2 yards per play to opposing rushers.  The best run defenders for the Seahawks come from the second and third level in the form of linebackers David Hawthorne, Aaron Curry, and safety Jordan Babineaux.

Player To Watch:  The Seahawks are really struggling on the defensive line, and we all know what can be expected if Peterson is able to get to the second level early and often.  I expect another big day for “All Day.”

 

VIKINGS PASS GAME (Adantage:  Vikings)

The Vikings 12th ranked pass game should have no problem against a depleted 22nd ranked Seahawks pass defense. 

The Seahawks are giving up an average of 233 yards through the air per week, despite the presence of high-caliber cornerback Marcus Trufant for the last 4 weeks.  No single player in the Seahawk secondary has multiple interceptions, however middle linebacker David Hawthorne does have three.  They have a total of eight picks on the year as a team.

The Vikings should be able to go long with great success against a secondary that has done nothing but struggle all year.  The long passes obviously rely on pass protection which could prove to the Vikings biggest liability in the passing game.

The Seahawks have 20 sacks on the year, which is respectable.  Both Bryant McKinnie and Phil Loadholt will get tested pretty well this week as they go up against Patrick Kerney and Lawrence Jackson who have 4 sacks each.  The linebackers are also capable of blitzing, and once again, David Hawthorne is the stand out here with his 3 sacks on the year. 

Player To Watch:  If Brett Favre can stay upright then Favre and all of the recievers should be able to put up huge numbers this week.  The key factor in keeping him upright will be for Bryant McKinnie to have a great day against Patrick Kerney.  Keep a close eye on this matchup.

 

VIKINGS RUN DEFENSE (Advanatage: Vikings)

The Vikings 6th ranked rush defense should dominate the Seahawks 27th ranked rush offense, right?  Well, maybe.

On paper this matchup looks incredibly lopsided, but I watched the Seahawks play the Cardinals last week and they may have finally found their stride on the ground.  Justin Forsett is the guy to watch, as he was pretty darn good last Sunday against a pretty darn good Cardinals rush defense.

However, I tend to think that the Seahawks will still be unsuccessful on the ground because of the unbeleivable bad luck they’ve had on the offensive line.  That, combined with the talent on the Vikings defensive line and the Vikings potential to put up a lot of points, makes me think the Seahawks will forego any true effort of running the ball.

Player to Watch:  E.J. Henderson has been having a rough time this season.  He refuses to use injuries as an excuse.  Sooner or later, he is going to regain his form and this may the perfect opporunity to do so.  Watch for him to give Justin Forsett “The Business” on multiple occasions this coming Sunday.

VIKINGS PASS DEFENSE (Advantage:  Seahawks)

Matt Hasselbeck is perhaps one of my least favorite players in the NFL… mainly because I think he’s a giant baby that has no business playing football if he can’t handle it’s physical nature.

That being said… he’s pretty good.

If, and it is a big “if”, the offensive line can keep him upright then Hasselbeck’s 13th ranked pass offense has the potential to torch Minnesota’s 23rd ranked pass defense. 

The reciever that scares me most on the Seahawks is John Carlson.  Carlson has been called on to be a blocking tight end more often than he’d like this year.  This is a result of the O-Line being in shambles and needing help.  But Carlson has the potential to make big plays in the passing game, and one has to think the Seahawks will let him run wild against a Vikings defense that has proven to have no answers for talented tight ends.

If they do let Carlson run more routes against the Vikings, though, then there will be a lot of pressure on Hasselbeck who will need to get rid of the ball quickly.  With the Vikings getting Antoine Winfield back (maybe) this week, then the Vikings should have multiple chances to force turnovers.

Whether or not they exploit those opportunities remains to be seen.

Player To Watch:  Jared Allen was quiet last week, as he was double teamed and Ray Edwards played like a man possessed.  This week, double team or not, I expect Allen to have a huge day.  I’m thinking multiple sacks against an offensive line that is held together by duct tape and band-aids.

SPECIAL TEAMS (Advantage: Vikings)

Percy Harvin is averaging 30.7 yards per kick return and the Seahawks are giving up 23.2 yards per kick return.  Meanwhile, the Seahawks committee of kick returners are averaging 22.8 yards per kick return and the Vikings are only giving up 21.7 yards per kick return.  Consider the big difference there for a second.

It gets worse for the Seahawks.

Darius Reynaud is gaining 12 yards per punt return and the Seahawk’s are giving up 13.2 yards per punt return.  The Seahawks are averaging 6.6 yards per return between Justin Forsett and Nate Burleson, and the Vikings are giving up only 8.0 yards per return.

Olindo Mare and Ryan Longwell, just like Jon Ryan and Chris Kluwe, are having very similar seasons.  The kickers provide no significant advantage.

Player To Watch:  Just considering the stats above, I have a feeling that Darius Reynaud might just outshine Percy Harvin on special teams Sunday.

CONCLUSION

I think the Vikings will dominate this game as the Seahawks will provide little more than a few speed bumps as resistance.  Home field advantage, nearly at full health, and superior talent spells a victory for the Vikings.  If they don’t win, however, then the Wilfs may want to see if there are any refund clauses in that nifty contract extension.

PREDICTION

31 – 13, Vikings win.