Previewing The Cardinals

As we mentioned previously, this game provides the Vikings with many opportunities to solidify their post season standing.  If the Vikings win, they are guaranteed a spot in the playoffs.  If the Vikings win and the Packers lose on Monday night, then the Vikings have clinched the NFC North.

Also, as we previously mentioned, if the Vikings can win one more of their final five games than the Saints do, then they will be the #1 seed in the NFC.  This would give the Vikings home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Despite last year’s dismantling of the Cardinals, the Vikings cannot afford to go to sleep this week, as the defending NFC champs are still a team loaded talent-wise with the potential to exploit any mistakes made by the Vikings.

This is shaping up to be the Vikings toughest test since November 1^st when they travelled to Green Bay.

Let’s take a look at how these two teams matchup:

VIKINGS PASS OFFENSE (Advantage: Vikings)

The Vikings have the 7^th ranked passing offense in the league, while the Cardinals have the 29^th ranked passing defense. 

On paper, this is a very good matchup for Favre and company, but in practice the Cardinals have the ability to make the Vikings pay if they try to air it out too much.

The Cardinals potential to shut down the pass and force turnovers lives and dies with the performance of their front seven.  They have a very respectable 32 sacks on the year, and if they can put constant pressure on Favre then there is a chance that he makes more mistakes than we are used to seeing.

Leading the pass rush is Darnell Dockett with 7 sacks on the year.  However, the rest of the defense has stepped up and registered a few sacks of their own including Calais Campbell (4), Clark Haggans (4.5), and Chike Okeafor (3.5).  The Vikings offensive line will probably be the deciding factor in how successful the team is through the air.

If the pass rush can force Favre to make a few mistakes, then the Cardinals have playmakers in the defensive backfield that are capable of making game-changing plays. 

Dominique Rogers-Cromartie has 3 interceptions, 2 forced fumbles, and 1 touchdown on the year.  Antrel Rolle has 4 interceptions and a forced fumble.  Adrian Wilson has 3 interceptions and a forced fumble. 

Needless to say, Favre will need to be on top of his game this Sunday, despite the Cardinals being ranked so low against the pass.  He will have limited time to make throws, so I expect to see shorter routes with the majority of the passes going towards Percy Harvin and Visanthe Shiancoe.  Keeping Sidney Rice and Bernard Berrian on shorter routes, like slants, will keep Favre from having to take hits too often and also limit those talented corners and safeties from having chances to make plays on the ball.  I cannot stress enough, however, that the success through the air on Sunday will depend most on the offensive lines ability to protect Favre.

PLAYER TO WATCH:  Percy Harvin arguably had the best game of his young career last week.  He is gradually becoming more and more a part of this offense each week.  As I mentioned, I expect Favre to be trying to methodically move the team down field via short, high percentage passes.  I expect that many of these passes will go towards Favre’s sure-handed rookie receiver, with hopes that he can make something happen after the catch.  Assuming that the Cardinals opt to put their best defensive backs against Rice and Berrian, there are very few other defenders on the Cardinals defense that come anywhere close to matching up well against Harvin’s speed and toughness.  I’m thinking Harvin will possibly top last week’s performance during this prime time matchup.

VIKINGS RUN OFFENSE  (Advantage:  Vikings)

It is time to move on from the worries of Adrian Peterson’s fumbling habit.  The fact is that defenses are having to choose between stopping Adrian Peterson or letting the November player of the month beat them through the air.  Despite Favre’s incredible performances, teams are STILL opting to focus on Peterson.  That is because they know what Favre is doing great, but Peterson has the potential to beat them even worse.  If they didn’t believe that, then teams wouldn’t still be putting 8 in the box on every down.

The Vikings are ranked 9^th in rushing offense while the Cardinals rank a respectable 14^th against the run.  Karlos Dansby is perhaps the best run defender on their team, and he leads the team with an incredible 65 solo tackles.  Opponents are averaging 4.5 yards per carry against the Cardinals, and I have a feeling they’d be averaging more if it wasn’t for Dansby’s knack for bringing down the runner.

The Vikings are one of the scariest running teams in the NFL.  Adrian Peterson is averaging 4.7 yards per carry, despite the incredible amount of attention he is getting from opposing defensive coordinators.  He has the ability to cut back to make 20 yards out of nothing.  He has the ability to toss a linebacker to the side or completely run over a defensive back.  His legs will never stop churning and he will make you pay if you don’t wrap up properly.

Oh, yeah, and we have a guy named Chester Taylor.  Taylor can hold his own and seems to break a run for decent yardage at very opportune times at least once a game.  Percy Harvin could also continue to see increased reps as a runner since he is averaging 8.3 yards per attempt.

I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again… the best way for opposing defenses to stop this Vikings offense is to stack 8 guys in the box and blitz every single time.  This puts unwanted pressure on Favre and also keeps Adrian Peterson in check as he’ll meet at least one defender in the backfield on almost every run.  The Steelers did this to us and they won.  Nobody else has done this to us and they’ve all lost.  I suspect that the next team to employ this strategy will beat us, or at least come close, but I don’t think Arizona has enough confidence in its defense to do this.

PLAYER TO WATCH:  Adrian Peterson will be under a microscope on Sunday night because of the attention paid to his fumbles last week and his recent speeding ticket.  Peterson will use his work ethic and heart to ensure that all those eyes watching him closely, looking for fumbles, will see nothing but a stellar performance.  He will need to get at least 20 carries in this game in order for the Vikings to maintain balance, and thus I think will have a very exciting outing in the desert.  If he isn’t benched or suspended that is…

VIKINGS PASS DEFENSE (Advantage: Cardinals)

I’m going to go out on a limb and assume that both Antoine Winfield and Kurt Warner play in this game.  If Winfield doesn’t play then the Cardinals will find more success.  If Warner doesn’t play, then the Cardinals have proven to be a much less potent offense.

The Cardinals have the 5^th ranked passing offense going against the Vikings 19^th ranked pass defense.  Any time you have a team having to figure out ways to stop Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston in addition to a check down option like Tim Hightower you are going to have breakdowns on defense.  That statement is especially true with Kurt Warner at the helm.

Even with the Vikings probably getting Antoine Winfield back in the mix, the Vikings corners do not matchup well with the Cardinals receivers.  To me, this means that an increase in dependability from Tyrell Johnson and Madieu Williams is a MUST in order for the Vikings to properly cover.  Even if all the Vikings defensive backs play their best football, the Cardinals provide very dangerous mismatches in the passing game.

This is why the Vikings again must win the battle in the trenches.  It is no secret that Kurt Warner is even less mobile than your typical statue, so the Vikings have the opportunity to completely shut down the passing game by not letting them pass at all. 

The Cardinals have allowed 18 sacks this year, with the struggles coming particularly at both ends of the line.  The Cardinals starting tackles have pretty much been windmills this season, and starting left tackle Mike Gandy may not even be able to play due to injury. 

This means that our defensive line could potentially tear up the Cardinals offense by getting good penetration on a regular basis.  Jared Allen has been relatively quiet against non-division opponents, so we will need him to step up in a big way.  The rest of the line will need to stay hot as well, in order to lend a helping hand to our defensive backs.  I would not be surprised to see Leslie Frazier dial up blitzes on a very regular basis as well.  Getting to Warner has got to be the Vikings top priority on defense, no questions asked.

While Tim Hightower should not be forgotten as a threat on passing downs, another advantage that the Vikings have on their side is that the Cardinals basically have no threats at tight end.  Ben Patrick leads the Cardinals tight ends with only 9 catches through 11 games.  These tight ends will doubtless continue to not be a factor in the passing game, as they will doubtless be asked to constantly help out the offensive line in pass protection.

PLAYER TO WATCH:  Jared Allen is having a great year, and I think it is about to get even better.  Whether he ends up facing Mike Gandy or a backup like rookie Herman Johnson, he outmatches these guys in a very dangerous way.  Combine Allen’s incredible talent, the lack of efficiency at left tackle for the Cards, and Warner’s inability to escape and I could see Allen having not only a multiple sack day, but a day in which he creates another turnover.

VIKINGS RUSH DEFENSE  (Advantage:  Vikings)

The Vikings 2^nd ranked rush defense against the Cardinals 27^th ranked rush offense is a mismatch like no other.

Despite using a first round draft pick on highly regarded Chris “Beanie” Wells, the Cardinals have been unable to find any sort of a rhythm in the run game. 

Hightower and Wells are obviously the Cardinals biggest running threats.  They average 4.3 and 4.5 yards per carry respectively.  Neither player has shown a great ability to break off large chunks of yardage, however.  I suspect that the WilliamsWall will hold up just fine.

If the Vikings run defense plays at the level they have been playing at recently, then I suspect that the Cardinals will abandon the run fairly early in this game and resort to relying on their passing game.

PLAYER TO WATCH:  The Vikings should be getting Antoine Winfield back this week.  The Cardinals will doubtless try to avoid the WilliamsWall entirely and attempt to bounce their running backs to the outside.  This is where Antoine Winfield has made a living for himself, by recognizing the run to his side early and then proceeding to drop the ball carrier in the backfield.  It sure will be fun to see that again.

VIKINGS SPECIAL TEAMS (No Significant Advantage)

Neil Rackers and Ryan Longwell are both having very good years, each having missed only one field goal.  Longwell, however, has proven that he can be counted on from beyond 50 yards.  Rackers has not attempted a field goal from that distance all year.

Ben Graham is averaging 4.1 yards per kick longer than Chris Kluwe.  Graham has also placed almost twice as many punts inside the 20 yard line than Kluwe has.  However, Graham has punted 14 times more than Kluwe.

Darius Reynaud is averaging 11.6 yards per punt return while the Cardinals are giving up 10.7 yards per attempt.  Steve Breaston is averaging 6.6 yards per punt return and the Vikings are giving up 7.3 yards per punt return.

Percy Harvin is averaging 29.8 yards per kick return and two touchdowns.  The Cardinals are allowing 21.6 yards per kick return.  LaRod Stephens-Howling is averaging 25 yards per kick return with one touchdown.  The Vikings are allowing 22.8 yards per kick return.

The Cardinals have allowed no touchdowns on returns this year, while the Vikings have allowed 1 touchdown on a punt return.

Both special teams units are playing very well this year, and it would not be a surprise to see the performances of these two squads play a major factor in the outcome of this game.

PLAYER TO WATCH:  With teams starting to avoid kicking towards Percy Harvin (no returns against the Bears) it would be nice to see Darius Reynaud take one to the house.  The coverage units for the Cardinals are playing very well, however, so Reynaud will really need to bring his A-game and make some plays if he wants to give the Vikings an advantage.

CONCLUSION

Both these teams will surely be in the playoffs this year.  Regardless of how badly we torched the Cardinals last year (they had already clinched the division, remember) they are still capable of destroying teams on their home turf. 

The Vikings linemen, on both sides of the ball, need to be the ones that win this game for us.  Protecting our quarterback and getting to theirs are the keys to success.

I think the Vikings are clearly the better team, but if they decide to only play three quarters of good football, then the Cardinals are capable of running away with it.

This will be a tough matchup and doubtless a very good game.

PREDICTION

My predictions have been accurate enough to where it even surprised me to look back and see how close they’ve been.  I have officially tried to predict 8 of the Vikings 11 games so far. 

My most inaccurate predictions came last week against the Bears and a while back when the Vikings lost to the Steelers.  I predicted that the Vikings would beat the Bears 31-23, but the score ended up being 36-10.  I predicted that the Vikings would beat the Steelers 33-30, but the Steelers beat the Vikings 17-27.

On the other six games I’ve predicted, I have come quite close to actually guessing the score, never being off by more than a touchdown.  Okay, enough tooting of my own horn, here’s my prediction for this week:

31-24, Vikings win.