This week I don’t have much good news in my preview.  Not much good news at all.

Some people may view this as an overreaction to the Cardinals game last week, but this is more based off of the fact that the Vikings have more unknowns about their team heading into this week than they have had since week one.

Bryant McKinnie and Adrian Peterson tipping off opposing defenses has become a topic of conversation.  With injuries, it is possible that we have three second day rookies starting on our defense.   Other than our starting center, every starting offensive linemen has injury of some sort.  The Bengals are an upstart team that most Vikings fans have not seen much of this season

This is my way of telling you not to get mad about this preview.  I am not trying to highlight negatives or be too pessimistic, but rather point out the unknowns and trying to predict how those unknowns will play out against a very solid 9-3 football team.

THE VIKINGS PASSING GAME  (Advantage:  Bengals)

The Bengals defense has allowed fewer points than any other team in the NFL.  A big reason for this is their 12th ranked passing defense proving to be quite stout at important times.  This will prove to be a tough matchup for the Vikings 9th ranked passing offense.

There are concerns among some fans (I am one of them) that we are going to see a less efficient Brett Favre as the regular season comes to a close.  However, if the Vikes can regain the balanced offense that they have seemingly kicked to the curb the last couple of weeks, then perhaps Favre will feel less of a need to imitate Tarvaris Jackson’s no look jump pass like he did last week.

A big part of the concern here comes from the fact that 4 of the Vikings 5 offensive line starters have been limited in practice this week due to injury.  The Bengals pass rush has been less dominant since Antwan Odom was placed on IR, but the remaining are no slouches when it comes to getting to the quarterback.

Jonathan Fanene (5 sacks), Robert Geathers (3.5), and Dhani Jones (3) could provide problems for this offensive line if they are not at 100%.

The Bengals have had fun picking off opposing quarterbacks as well, and they have 14 on the year.  Led by Jonathan Joseph (5 INTs), Leon Hall (4), and Cris Crocker (2).  Crocker has not practiced this week due to injury.

The Vikings offense allowed the Cardinals to put a formula on tape on how to shut them down.  A good coaching staff would make adjustments to counter this formula.  I’m not convinced that we have a good coaching staff on the offensive side of the ball.

Combine our problems on the offensive line with questions about Brett Favre’s durability, and I have to give the Bengals staunch defense the edge in this one.  That being said, if Favre has the time to get the ball to our very talented wide outs then the Vikings offense could very well go back to shooting off fireworks.

PLAYER TO WATCH:  So far this year, Brett Favre has kept his skeptics (anybody know one?) pretty quiet.  He’s having an MVP type season and one mediocre (he wasn’t actually that bad) last week is no reason to think he has regressed.  However, if the Vikings offense sputters for the second week in a row then you won’t be able to shut those skeptics up (anybody know one?).  This added bit of drama should make sure everyone is keeping an even closer eye on how Favre performs.

 

THE VIKINGS RUNNING GAME (Advantage:  Bengals)

The Bengals have been very successful stopping the run and are ranked 2nd in the NFL in rush defense.  The Vikings poor rushing efforts last week caused them to slip to the 11th ranked rushing offense. 

Adrian Peterson is coming off of what was arguably his worst collective week of his career.  He faced numerous questions about his habit of fumbling the ball, got a highly publicized speeding ticket, and then ran for only 19 yards on 13 attempts against the Cardinals.  Oh, and his ankle hurts too. 

The Bengals are only allowing opposing rushers to gain 3.8 yards per attempt.  This is due in large part to the efforts of Dhani Jones (55 solo tackles), Jonathan Joseph (43), and Chinedum Ndukwe (42).  The stout defense also features a very talented run stopping corner in Leon Hall.

The Vikings offensive line injuries will doubtless come into play again this week.  While they are expected to get Anothony Herrera back into the lineup at 100%, the injuries to Bryant McKinnie, Steve Hutchinson, Phil Loadholt and Visanthe Shiancoe will not serve the running game well.

One thing that I feel adamant about is that the Vikings need to do a better job of establishing the run (that feels so weird to say about this team).  Adrian Peterson was only used 13 times last week, which is inexcusable to me regardless of how little his production is. 

The team only had 21 total rushing attempts last week, while Favre threw 45 times.  This amazed me, as even as late as the third quarter the Vikings were still within 11 points.  The team seemed to panic and opted to air out the ball entirely too much instead of beating teams via a balanced attack like they have done so many times this season.  The panic resulted in calling pass after pass which is part of why we saw Favre revert to his gunslinging ways.

The run must be established on Sunday if the Vikes want to have any success against this surprisingly tough Bengals defense.  Even if it means giving the ball to Percy Harvin 10 times, the run MUST be established.

PLAYER TO WATCH:  Peterson has not all of the sudden become a bum.  Underneath that helmet is still the same dangerous, fear-inducing monster that we’ve all grown to expect big things from.  Part of how his legacy will be regarded will depend greatly on how he responds to adversity.  Thus far he has dealt well with adversity, but Sunday will perhaps be his toughest test in this regard since he has entered the league.  We will all be watching anxiously to see how he responds.

 

THE VIKINGS RUN DEFENSE (Advantage: Vikings)

The battle between the Bengals 6th ranked rushing offense and the Vikigns 3rd ranked rushing defense will be quite interesting… if it ever happens.  Like we have seen so many teams do this year, the Bengals may opt to forego the run game all together and merely lean on their potential to exploit a struggling Viking secondary.

Cedric Benson has over achieved this season and Larry Johnson is perhaps finding himself in a situation where he can shine. 

However, the presence of the WilliamsWall will stifle their attempts.  Sure they may break off a few big ones, but for the most part, their run game will be shut down. 

Again, we have some unknowns in this area.  I personally think that Jasper Brinkley may prove to be even better at stopping the run than E.J. Henderson was.  Also, we may get Antoine Winfield back (ha ha ha) this week which would help when teams opt to run to the outside and avoid the WilliamsWall completely. 

This will be a tough matchup, but I have yet to see a running back that I think would find consistent success against this front four.  And that includes Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson.

PLAYER TO WATCH:  Jasper Brinkley will have some big shoes to fill as he hops into the starting middle linebacker role to replace E.J. Henderson.  Brinkley, known as a big hitter and downhill player, could probably solidify the starting gig for years to come if he performs with excellence at the end of this season.  We will await anxiously to see just what it is this kid brings to the table.

 

THE VIKINGS PASS DEFENSE (Advantage:  Bengals)

The Vikings are already ranked an almost embarrassing 21st against the pass.  This week, there is a potential that the defense will have three second day rookies in starting spots.  All of whom have never started before.  Think about it… Brinkley will replace Henderson.  Griffin, Winfield, and Paymah are all listed on the injury report which could cause Asher Allen (woo hoo!) to get his first NFL start if the stars align.  With Tyrell Johnson nursing a concussion, signs are pointing towards Jamarca Sanford getting the start.

This is a scary thought.

It is especially scary when you consider that the quarterback is the uber-talented Carson Palmer, and that he’ll be throwing to Chad Ochocinco (910 yards, 6 TDs), Andre Caldwell (363, 3), and Laverneous Coles (404, 3).

Last week, the Cardinals were able to stave off the Vikings tenacious pass rush by using primarily three-step drops.  The Vikings had obviously known this was the plan (perhaps because Vikings Gab said it would be???) and the defensive line had obviously been coached to help defend these passes by getting their hands up and batting down the footballs.

Pat Williams batted down two passes and Jimmy Kennedy batted down another one.  Batting down three passes is great, but it is no replacement for a solid pass rush that gets there in time.  The Bengals have had trouble defending the pass rush, and the Vikings had better figure out a way to get there this week, no matter how many steps Palmer takes before releasing the ball.

PLAYER TO WATCH:  Jared Allen was being double teamed like crazy by the Cardinals, and neither Kevin Williams nor Ray Edwards seemed to be able to take advantage of that fact.  Pat Williams, on the other hand, played perhaps his best game of the season.  Keep an eye on Jared Allen to see if he continues to draw such a persistent double team that was so effective last week.  If this becomes a normal thing, then his teammates have got to step up and help him out.

 

SPECIAL TEAMS (Advantage:  Vikings)

This bothered me all week.  Teams are now kicking away from Percy Harvin, right?  And whenever that happens to other teams they can say they have “won” that battle, right?  Well then why are the Vikings not “winning” that battle?

The kicks go straight to Jeff Dugan, who carries the ball for five yards and falls down at the 27.  That doesn’t feel like a victory of any sort now does it?

The Vikings have got figure out a way to get the ball into the hands of someone capable of doing something with it, regardless of whether or not the opponents kick it deep.  It is time to make an adjustment and start taking advantage of the other team’s fear of Harvin.

Everything else seems to suggest that the Vikings are far superior to the Bengals on special teams, except for perhaps their ability to cover punts.

 

CONCLUSION

“Unknowns” is the theme of the day.  The Vikings have too many of them heading into this game in order for me to feel confident.  The offense needs to regain its balance in order to regain its stride.  The defense needs to overcome poor performance and a slew of injuries in order to stop a high powered offense.

I think if the Vikings can muster anything greater than laying another egg, then the crowd at the Metrodome will walk away feeling a little more confident about the upcoming playoffs.

 

PREDICTION

For the first time this year, I honestly think the Vikings will lose a game.  I hope I am wrong.

24 – 20, Bengals.