Battle: Run Versus Pass
As many of you could tell, once I learned that Brett Favre has been changing run plays to pass plays at the line of scrimmage I sided with (I can’t believe I am admitting this) Brad Childress in the whole “Brad vs. Brett” thing that is going on.
The reason for my reaction, and probably Childress’ too, is simple. I felt like this team is far more successful when they are running a balanced offense. After reading some comments I realized that what I felt didn’t mean squat, so I decided to earn my big paycheck and delve into the stats a bit.
I decided to look at the Vikings record and point differential between when they run a balanced offense and when they don’t. Here is the chart I am going off of (fact checkers unite!):
|
Week |
Home |
Opponent |
Score |
Point Difference |
Run Plays |
Pass Plays |
Run % |
|
1 |
Browns |
W34-20 |
14 |
37 |
22 |
62.71% |
|
|
2 |
Lions |
W27-13 |
14 |
25 |
28 |
47.17% |
|
|
3 |
X |
Niners |
W27-24 |
3 |
27 |
46 |
36.99% |
|
4 |
X |
Packers |
W30-23 |
7 |
30 |
32 |
48.39% |
|
5 |
Rams |
W38-10 |
28 |
24 |
27 |
47.06% |
|
|
6 |
X |
Ravens |
W33-31 |
2 |
31 |
29 |
51.67% |
|
7 |
Steelers |
L17-27 |
-10 |
23 |
50 |
31.51% |
|
|
8 |
Packers |
W38-26 |
12 |
32 |
28 |
53.33% |
|
|
10 |
X |
Lions |
W27-10 |
17 |
31 |
31 |
50.00% |
|
11 |
X |
Seahawks |
W35-9 |
26 |
37 |
33 |
52.86% |
|
12 |
X |
Bears |
W36-10 |
26 |
34 |
48 |
41.46% |
|
13 |
Cardinals |
L17-30 |
-13 |
20 |
45 |
30.77% |
|
|
14 |
X |
Bengals |
W30-10 |
20 |
37 |
30 |
55.22% |
|
15 |
Panthers |
L7-26 |
-19 |
14 |
27 |
34.15% |
|
|
16 |
Bears |
||||||
|
17 |
Giants |
So, I will let you browse the numbers on your own to see if you draw any other conclusions that are different than mine.
I decided to define a “balanced offense” as running the ball at least 40% of the time. What I found is that the Vikings are not only undefeated when they do just that, but finish (on average) up by three scores. When the run ratio dips below 40%, they finish down by two scores:
|
Record |
Average Point Difference |
|
| Games With At Least 40% Rushing |
10-0 |
16.6 |
| Games With Less Than 40% Rushing |
1-3 |
-9.75 |
Now, I know that this opens up all sorts of “chicken and egg” type of arguments since it is easier to stick to the run when you have a comfortable lead, but it is hard to argue with the consistency that the above numbers suggest.
That, folks, is the exact reason why I think the Viking play callers, whether that is a coach or a quarterback, need to stick with the run.
Adrian Peterson is still the most dangerous threat on this offense, and the Vikings cannot allow defenses to take him out of the game… much less our own play calling.
People are right in saying that it has been a long time since we’ve had a quarterback that can get it done like Favre can. It is true.
However, we have never had a running back that can get it done like Peterson can. He needs to be the centerpiece of our offense. He breaks off big runs, he forces a stacked defense, he opens things up for our passing game, gives the defense time to rest, and he is capable of making Brett Favre look like an MVP candidate.
Stick to the run.
Grind it out.
That is how to win games in December… and January…
And February.
This post has 8 comments
December 23rd, 2009 at 5:47 am
I agree completely, Adam, and this is what I have been saying all along. Its great to have Favre as a weapon to keep defenses honest, but he is no Marino at this stage of his career. This team needs to run the ball to be successful. I would like to see us actually run the ball on all three downs just once. How often will AP not get 10 yards on three runs? Maybe that is Chili’s point in his battle with Favre over audibles.
As I posted on the AV, the “stretch” play now seems to be our only way to run the ball. AP is very deep, and teams are stretching us out and keeping us lateral. I would like to see us take a more north and south approach with him a little closer to the line. But that is just one man’s philosophy to the run game. It still comes down to execution, because it seems to me like we should have the pieces we need to be able to run the ball. Someone needs to get it figured out, and that isn’t happening.
And let me just say that I hope we (the sports world) can all begin to ignore this Chili/Favre thing pretty soon. It is starting to become Tiger Woods-like, and I hope it can soon become a thing of the past. Bottom line: Favre did not need to spout off like that after the game – it needed to be kept in house.
December 23rd, 2009 at 7:50 am
Buds,
Turn off the TV and radio and it all goes away very quickly. Turn on the Victrola play some of that old vinyl you’ve got hanging around.
While Favre was with the Packers, they always had a crap running game didn’t they? Buds, that slow developing stretch play drives Fred nuts too. Just give AP the ball and let him look for a hole to run through. We don’t need AP running 4 yards looking at Brents outstretched arm, finally getting the ball and having no where to run. Get it to him early and allow him more options to run inside or out.
I guess the idea of the stretch play is that it sets up play action. How about AP gaining 75 yards running in the first half? That might help play action too.
AKs…good article.
December 23rd, 2009 at 8:32 am
Anybody got a record player? A box of albums without a record player is about as useful as… well, you know. Actually Freds, I just secured myself one of them I-touch pod thingys. Pretty slick, I must say. Now, if I could just get it to play that old Johnny Rivers album, well, the ol’ hunter here would be in tall clover! Anyway, that little sucker is a calculator, alarm clock and google machine all in one. Dangdest thing I ever seen!
I contend that with that stretch play run system, even you could have provided run support, Fragile.
December 23rd, 2009 at 10:22 am
I think the bigger issue here is that you are getting a paycheck for this!?? JEALOUS!
December 23rd, 2009 at 10:57 am
Amen Adam, couldn’t agree more. Where have the trap plays and lead blocks between the tackles gone? Birk used to be one of the only centers that regularly pulled for trap plays, with Sullivan being undersized I think that’d be a great way to utilize him, and let Herrera or Hutch slant down on the big boys in the middle of the defense.
December 23rd, 2009 at 11:09 am
The only problem I have with running the ball more is that if it just aint workin, ya gotta try something else and stretch the field.
December 23rd, 2009 at 12:50 pm
The offense has become quite predictable. Run up the middle on 1st down….short pass on 2nd down…..pass on 3rd down.
To Johnny’s point…what happened to throwing down the field? Berrian/ Harvin have sound barrier-piercing speed….Rice has Moss-like skills to go up and get it. And yet, these deep balls are becoming the forgotten weapon. Figure out how to get 6-8 yards on 1st down, and the playbook becomes a weapon. But when your faced with 2nd and 9…3rd and 12 over and over, it ain’t gonna happen.
December 23rd, 2009 at 2:11 pm
Hey Adam – what about this topic…
All three Vike losses on grass. Clearly, their best games played were on turf. Even the game at Green Bay was a nice win, but we weren’t all that sharp. Are we simply a team built for turf that gets severly bogged down on grass? That doesn’t bode well for Monday night, but it will most likely be our last game on grass (until the Super Bowl maybe?)
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