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Checking In On Predictions

A favorite past time of readers of this site is to check back on predictions made and see how they held up over time.

Some of you even love to pick on the editor of this site (gasp!) when he makes a bold prediction that falls flat.  For instance, I thought bringing in Brett Favre was going to be a giant disaster to the Vikings offense.


Heck, every now and again I even get some right like the collapse of Bryant McKinnie in the second half of the regular season or that Asher Allen would not win the nickel job as a rookie.

So, while it is fun to be served an involuntary but healthy serving of crow from time to time, I can promise you that nobody, and I mean nobody, keeps closer tabs on my predictions than I do.

So, while we are all waiting patiently for the Draft to roll around, lets check in on my offseason predictions.  Go to the 2010 Offseason Tracker and scroll down to “Offseason Previews” and click the links to find my position-by-position predictions made back in February.

For those who don’t want to put forth that effort, here is the breakdown of how my predictions have fared thus far:


“Jackson will become a restricted free agent, and I would fully expect the Vikings to tender him at about the second round level.” This one I got right!  The Vikings did tender Jackson at the second round level, but the team would only receive a third rounder because of the Vikings decision to place a second round tender on Fred Evans.

“I will tell you right now, the Vikings will not find the answer to their quarterback questions in this year’s free agency class.” No surprise here, but this turned out to be accurate.

“I think all the evidence points to Chester Taylor playing with another team in 2010.” He signed with the Bears.

“I also expect that the Vikings will try to retain Albert Young and Ian Johnson at least until the training camp cuts come around.” Training camp isn’t here yet, but both of these guys were retained and seem likely to stick until the first cuts at least.

“I honestly expect the Vikings to again tender Tahi and retain his services.” Tahi was tendered at the lowest possible level.

“I think Pat Williams is coming back for one more go of it.” Pat confirmed that he plans to return for another season.

“Jimmy Kennedy is the bigger question, as I could see him trying to get out of Minnesota and trying to get one final contract with lucrative incentives somewhere else.  Do not be surprised if the Vikings either make him an offer that he refuses or if the Vikings re-sign him to a contract that everyone considers to be too much money.” I don’t know that Kennedy’s contract could be described as “too much” but the Vikings were the highest bidder after Kennedy made at least one free agency visit.

“I don’t think Sapp is worthy of a long-term contract, but given the Vikings current situation, they should be making him an offer for a two or three year contract very soon.” Sapp signed a two year contract with the Vikes.

“While question marks in the Vikings secondary don’t hurt his (Karl Paymah) chances at remaining a Viking, I highly doubt the team will try and retain him.” The Vikings opted not to tender Paymah and he is now San Francisco’s problem.

“Look for the Vikings to sniff around a few of the mid-level UFA cornerbacks this offseason…” This one cracks me up because I think it is the most accurate predictions I’ve had so far, haha.  Tye Hill, Phillip Buchanon, Lito Sheppard…

“This means that the Vikings can retain the 25 year old player (Eric Frampton) quite easily, which I think they will given his dependability on special teams.” Frampton was retained and recently signed his tender.


“If the Vikings let Taylor go, don’t expect them to look to fill the void with any of the other guys mentioned in regards to free agency.”  The Vikings made a run at Tomlinson, so I consider this to be an incorrect prediction even though they didn’t land him.

“The Vikings will replace Greg Lewis with a late round pick.” The Vikings re-signed Greg Lewis to a one year contract.

“I also think that Hicks will be re-signed as the primary backup at both positions.” Hicks became a member of the Washington Redskins in free agency.

“I do not expect them to tender Ryan Cook.” Ryan Cook was tendered, and Childress recently expressed confidence in his ability to backup many positions along the line.

“I think they’ll try and nab one of these really solid guards and slide Herrera into the center position.” The Vikings did not show any public interest in a free agent guard, nor do they appear to have any interest in moving Herrera to center.

“It wouldn’t be a surprise if he (Ray Edwards) was tendered at the highest possible level.” Edwards was tendered at the first round level, one step below the highest level.

“Fred Evans has shown me nothing but promise when given the opportunity to play, but I know many Vikings fans would beg to differ.  He is a restricted free agent at the age of 26, and to me it makes sense for the Vikings to tender him at a low level and keep him around for at least one more year.” Evans received a second round tender, which could hardly be described as “low level.”

“Longwell is in a contract year, but if the Vikings plan on replacing him they will probably due it via a move next season.” Rhys Lloyd may not be a replacement for Longwell, but I sure didn’t see them signing a kicker as their first move of free agency.

So, that’s how everything stacks up for now.  I’m not bragging about the hits and I’m not crying about the misses.  I’m just a guy bored out of his gourd waiting for the draft to come about and decided to look back and see how he did.

Self-evaluation is an important part of improving… just ask Tyrell Johnson.

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54 Responses to “Checking In On Predictions”

  1. B. Grant says:

    Looks like a bang-up result to me, Adam. Couldn’t expect any better with all these crazy rules they got now. Don’t know how you keep track of ’em all, much less predict the outcomes. Nice work! (I didn’t see one on Favre coming back. What’s your call?)

    • Adam Warwas says:

      Thanks Bud… but there are a few i should’ve seen coming.

      I started my Favre coming back prediction only a few days after the NFC Championship… I still think he returns.

      • B. Grant says:

        Well, for one, you were right and Chili is wrong when it comes to Cook. Having the ability to play many positions poorly is not a thing to be valued.

      • bigjohnny84 says:

        Great point Coach, Ive been trying to make it for a while now. But you’re alot better at it than me. thanks!

      • Adam Warwas says:

        Haha, that was indeed my logic in making that prediction, Coach. But we’ll see, Chili has proved us wrong before.

  2. G.P. says:

    …you had to drop the kid’s name into the mix didn’t you. Hats off to you Warwas you did well. However, I still declare the kid’s a beast and it’s only a matter of time before the kid shows out and wins the nickel spot. 21 21 21 21

    • Adam Warwas says:

      Sorry, G.P…. but that prediction did end up being correct.

      This year, I do fully expect Asher to be the nickel back… at least until/unless Ced makes his way back to 100%

  3. G.P. says:

    Agreed I’m always willing to give credit where credit is due. Congratulations Warwas you were right. My kid is still a beast and I fully expect that he will be a regular contributor to the team in the 2010 season!

  4. bigjohnny84 says:

    My man GP is correct. AA will start if Griffen is not up to the task. Or Winni if he’s not ready,.

  5. G.P. says:

    I normally try and stay away from definitive statements but in this case I’m willing to make an exception I don’t hope…I know. This may sound bold and perhaps a little pushy but I’m a firm believer the kid’s got what it takes. It’s just taking him a minute but I know I’ll have plenty of reasons to do the Asher Allen Dance this season. That’s right I said it I have an Asher Allen Dance.

    • Adam Warwas says:

      You know it drives me nuts G.P., and I’m sure you’ll never tell, but I gotta ask. What’s the deal with you and AA? Are you his former professor, coach, teacher, tutor, babysitter, mom, dad, brother, sister, booster, employer… You gotta know him somehow.

  6. G.P. says:

    Warwas why does it bother so much?

    • Adam Warwas says:

      Because I like to know people’s stories… for example, I know Johnny, Bud, Freds, Fran, CC, and Starr pretty well despite having never met them. Knowing your story would help me understand where you are coming from on your evaluation.

      Plus, if you know him then perhaps you can hook me up with an interview. 😉

    • bigjohnny84 says:

      GP, I cant wait to see the AA dance.

  7. G.P. says:

    Gotcha but what makes you think I know him? Is it possible that I’m just a fan?

  8. G.P. says:

    You sound awfully certain my dear Sherlock. I can say this we are in no way related and he has never worked for me.

  9. G.P. says:

    No on both accounts. I like your tenacity Warwas. Unfortunately I’m just an avid fan who may or may not know the kid. Sorry to burst your bubble.

  10. G.P. says:

    dude I honestly felt like I had just committed a crime and you were in fact the cops. Hahaha ever thought about a career in law enforcement? Glad my answers were satisfactory. That was a close one.

    • Adam Warwas says:

      Haha, my apologies.

      I’d be lying if I said my first real conversation with a reader when i started (you and I) here at VG didn’t leave a few unanswered questions that had me wondering 🙂

      I enjoy your insight, and would love to hear what you think of some of this year’s Georgia/GT prospects.

      And, yes, I have considered a career in law enforcement. But the pay at VG is just too good. 😉

  11. bigjohnny84 says:

    The GP mystery survives. And Adam my curiuosity is strong as well. Sorry for the spelling.

  12. Adam Warwas says:

    I think I am quite possibly Ben Leber’s biggest fan… I think I should perhaps develop a Leber Dance? Just to match G.P.’s enthusiasm. I wonder what a Leber Dance would look like. Hell, I wonder what an AA Dance looks like 🙂

  13. G.P. says:

    One word fellas and the word is awesoome. Yup I happen to think my dance has no worthy rivals. I think a Leber Dance is a great idea.

  14. G.P. says:

    You post the Leber and I’ll post the Asher hahaha!

    • Adam Warwas says:

      Yeah, cause if we had more than one there is like a 76% chance we land our own reality TV show! Johnny, you going to be working on your McKinnie Dance?

      Oh, wait, Julius Peppers already has that covered.

  15. Adam Warwas says:

    Alright, fellas… I’m calling it quits for the evening.

    G.P., it was good getting to know you better… honestly.

    Johnny, see you tomorrow… same place, same time.

    G’Night all.

  16. G.P. says:

    Call me crazy but it just might work! We could be rich!

  17. Adam Warwas says:

    Ole, here’s one more quick answer to your scenario in the previous post:

    I calmly give Tony Pants a parachute and help him jump. I do the same for Jerkpepper and Hoppy and help them jump, being very careful that they get their proper clearances from the props.

    Then, I give the pilot twenty bucks and thank him very much for pretending that the plane was crashing.

  18. Fragile Freds says:

    G.Ps –

    Your old pal Fragile hates to blow your cover, but someone very close to Freds sent along this video of you doing the “Asher Allen dance.”


    Freds would like to see Asher do well, but at the expense of this dance…Fred isn’t so sure.

    • bigjohnny84 says:

      Freds, you did it again, you suckered me into your link. For some reason thats not the vision I had of our pal GP. But he can sure move for a big man. Your pal Bmac should sign him right away.

  19. Jerkpepper says:

    Where are all the Hank Baskett predictions at? Are you even trying anymore? This blog is worse than Bones + HOPPY + a McMuffin prepared by Billy McMuffin + Judd Zulgad + Kevin “i’m a tan ghost” Seifert. Horrible and terrible!!!!

  20. Hey Adam, just wanted to say thanks for adding me to your blog! My e-mail is currently down, so i can only recieve messages, not send. :/ so i got ur message, and yes, I would love to work with you somehow. what were you thinking? Send me an e-mail, or follow me on twitter. B_Lemke15vikes. thank you!

  21. Fran the Man says:


    Don’t fret too much about being a guy “bored out of his gourd”
    I was just on the Twin Cities, Pioneer Press site and one of their headliners was about Leber and Farwell growing their hair out this summer.
    Yep, it’s REAL boring out there…

  22. Jerkpepper says:

    Adjusting for inflation, the Hank Baskett trade has now reached a number of terribles that is so high man has not yet created a number to represent it. If I were to type it the internet would crash.

    Hank Baskett Superbowl appearances = 1
    Billy McMuffin McMuffins made = 1,364 and counting

    Bones + fake made-up name like Zulgad and Warwas – HOPPY sitting on chair looking like Homer Simpson + Kevin Seifert should just throw his computer in the dumpster and give up blogging = the Hank Baskett trade registers 1 gazillion horribles and a number of terribles that is too high to count

  23. Norseman66 says:


    Is it possible you could say that the Icelandic volcano will probably make travel to your meeting on Thursday impossible and strand you at home like so many people in Europe right now? It’s worth a shot!

  24. bigjohnny84 says:

    Hey Adam, have you heard anything from our pal Charlie? It’s not like him to be gone so long. Hope all is well with him.

    • Purple Charlie says:

      Hi ya Johnny, Me and the Mrs have been busy the last few days in the garage, we are turning the it into living space.

      I’m tired pal, Taken today off from it, But thanks for asking, I’m fine…

      I see Freds sucked you in again!!! Johnny don’t fight it anymore, Just figure on looking from now on…

  25. G.P. says:

    So busted Freds…Dance is out now Hahahaha!

  26. HOPPY says:

    You want to know about jerkpepper? He is a Richy Rich want-to-be that lives in a big gold castle with a golden moat and he rides a gold plated horse to town every day. Oh, and he looks like the lovechild of Mark Cuban and John Stockton. And he lies with every word me boys!

  27. Ole says:

    Hoppy vs. Jerkpepper

    my money is on the guy who “rides a gold plated horse”

  28. Lost Viking says:

    The general theme above being Childress has demonstrated apparent satisfaction with his roster. Backup players were retained with limited free agent movement.

    If this persists expect predictability in the draft- CB/OG/TE/RB and maybe a late round QB.

  29. […] down position-by-position and do my best to highlight their options.  Last year, I actually did fairly well in predicting which free agents would be retained by the Vikings, that they would be almost […]

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