KFFL: Peterson Should Score Between 14 and 16 TD’s in 2010

KFFL.com, a premiere fantasy site, says that Vikings back Adrian Peterson should cross the goal-line 14 to 16 times in 2010, but his punishing run style could be a major concern:

Pros: Averaging at least 4.4 yards per carry each of his three NFL seasons, Peterson is coming off a career-high 18-touchdown campaign. He also set a career high with 43 receptions for 436 yards, and with running back Chester Taylor (Bears) gone, Peterson stands to see a potential increase in third-down work. Always a big-play threat, he has scored at least one touchdown from 60 yards or more in every one of his NFL seasons. AD hasn’t found the end zone less than 10 times in any one year, either. In fact, he has the most total rushing touchdowns (40) of any back in the past three years, and only LaDainian Tomlinson (38) has scored double-digit rushing TDs each of the past three seasons. Minnesota sports one of the best run-blocking lines in the league, and if quarterback Brett Favre (ankle) returns, Peterson is likely to face fewer stacked boxes than he did in his first two seasons.

Cons: Peterson’s style is feast or famine. He toted the ball 87 times last year for no gain or negative yardage (23.8 percent of his carries), which was the ninth most in the NFL among qualifying backs. If Favre doesn’t return, Peterson will be zeroed in on more frequently. AD’s punishing style can lead to injuries, something he wasn’t a stranger to at the collegiate level. His yards-per-carry average has decreased each of the past two years. The Vikings have a few players that could be third-down specialists, so Peterson isn’t a lock for that workload. Fumbling. Peterson often loses the ball when fighting for extra yardage. From a fantasy purpose, most leagues deduct only a point per lost fumble, so last year you can basically remove one touchdown from his total to offset his butterfingers.

Fantasy tip: We like Peterson as the top back this year. Yes, even ahead of Chris Johnson. AD is the safest choice for a great season, and while he may not necessarily finish atop the points list for running backs, he is practically a lock to be a top-three back. Peterson is usually drafted with the second pick. If you are so fortunate, count your blessings and laugh your way to the bank.

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3 Responses to “KFFL: Peterson Should Score Between 14 and 16 TD’s in 2010”

  1. SupaScout says:

    I’m not sure I totally agree with the argument that KFFL is putting up. Yes, I agree that AP is a stud of a running back and no doubt end up as one of the rushing leaders at the end of the season. However rating the O-line as one of the strongest run blocking units is wrong.

    ProFootballFocus.com sees it differently, “Firstly, a look at just how strong the relationship between the performance of an O-line is and the ability of rushers to avoid no-gain runs. Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson managed to rank ninth in the Elusive Rating, and fumbles aside, is widely considered one of the league’s toughest runners. But with 23.8 percent of his rushes last season for no gain or worse, he had the ninth-poorest percentage figure in the NFL. His stable mate in the Minnesota backfield, Chester Taylor, was one of the eight other rushers to record a poorer mark. This matches up clearly with our grading data, which shows Minnesota had the league’s worst run blocking unit on offense last season.

    The discrepancy between Peterson’s strong showing in our Elusive Rating and his poor showing in this study is directly related to the struggles that the Minnesota offense had in run blocking in front of both Peterson and Taylor. Worryingly for Minnesota fans, they appear to have done little to address that in the offseason, and will be relying on a much improved performance from some of their young starters in 2010.”

    In all fairness Hutch was injured for much of the season and we did have two new starters. Finally if Bryant McKinney stops using two different stances one for pass plays and another for runs it too would help.

  2. Fragile Freds says:

    Scout nailed it. The offensive line was not good last year, they have been over rated for a few years now. Fred isn’t convinced it is an injury issue that has made us lower tier. Remember Birk and Hutch saying they didn’t prefer zone blocking? That still makes Fred wonder. Herrera is a good back up and Sully…who knows. If they get Pitts, he’s not a starter, at least not now. Time will tell , but they need to invest in the o line via the draft soon.

  3. bigjohnny84 says:

    How is it that we can all see the issues with the oline but Childo and Speilman cant?

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