Coaching Turnover Forecast 10-17


Who are the coaches closest to getting fired? Here’s your list:
TIER ONE: DEAD MEN WALKING
  1. Jaguars head coach Jack Del Rio, Record: 1-5, 66-68 career with team; Offense: 31st; Defense: 12th; Years left on contract: 1.
He will get fired unless the light comes on for Gabbert, his non-injured weapons progress, and they end up making the playoffs.
  2. Colts head coach Jim Caldwell, Record: 0-6, 24-14 career with team, 2-2 playoffs; Offense: 28th; Defense: 28th; Years left on contract: 1.
He will get fired if the Colts go 3-13 or worse and continue to have no answer for the defensive problems. I think Bill Polian is more of the problem, but Caldwell was kind of Dungy’s pick and getting a defensive coach makes sense when Manning comes back.
  3. Chiefs head coach Todd Haley, Record: 2-3, 16-21 career with team, 0-1 playoffs; Offense: 29th; Defense: 32nd; Years left on contract: 1.
He will get fired if the Chiefs finish worse than 8-8. Pioli probably has some guys in mind. I have Caldwell ahead of him because Haley going 8-8 in the AFC West is slightly more realistic than Caldwell going 4-12 right now.
  4. Dolphins head coach Tony Sparano, Record: 0-5, 25-28 career with team, 0-1 playoffs; Offense: 30th; Defense: 27th; Years left on contract: .
He will get fired if the Dolphins miss the playoffs. Losing Chad Henne doesn’t change the expectations much.

TIER TWO: SEAT HAS TURNED TO ASHES
  5. Eagles head coach Andy Reid, Record: 2-4, 120-77-1 career with team, 10-9 playoffs; Offense: 11th; Defense: 16th; Years left on contract: 2.
He will get fired if he misses the playoffs, and the remaining games with the Cowboys, Redskins and Giants will be the perfect indicator as to whether they are going to make it or not.
  6. Bears head coach Lovie Smith, Record: 3-3, 66-52 career with team, 3-3 playoffs; Offense: 10th; Defense: 12th; Years left on contract: 2.
He will get fired if the organization really wants to clean house or maybe if they collapse down the stretch. If the right candidate is there, a 1-and-done in the playoffs might not cut it.
  7. Texans head coach Gary Kubiak, Record: 3-3, 40-46 career with team; Offense: 14th; Defense: 9th; Years left on contract: 1.
He will get fired if they miss the playoffs.

TIER THREE: NOT AN OPTIMISTIC OUTLOOK
  8. Vikings head coach Leslie Frazier, Record: 1-5, 4-8 career with team; Offense: 21st; Defense: 16th; Years left on contract: 2.
He will probably get fired if they don’t do better than 3-13, the record Les Steckel had in his one year with the . The Vikings are going to be paying for two more years of Brad Childress.
  9. Browns head coach Pat Shurmur, Record: 2-3; Offense: 27th; Defense: 15th; Years left on contract: 3.
He could get fired if the Browns go 5-11 or 4-12, but I think Holmgren cares about public favor – not just the Browns fanbase – and would look mean for firing him after one year.
10. Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt, Record: 1-4, 33-36 career with team, 4-2 playoffs; Offense: 23rd; Defense: 19th; Years left on contract: 2.
He could get fired if the Cardinals finish last in the division. The games against the Rams could decide that.

SAFE FOR NOW BUT MAYBE NOT THROUGH THE OFF-SEASON: Tom Coughlin (needs to win playoff game), Marvin Lewis, Steve Spagnuolo, Mike Smith (just extended last season), and Norv Turner (needs to win playoff game).

Follow me at: http://twitter.com/Chris_M_Bach

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33 Responses to “Coaching Turnover Forecast 10-17”

  1. B. Grant says:

    Leslie’s not going down after one year, Chris. Unless some extremely strange things happen between now and the end of the year, he’ll be given another year to get things moving in the right direction. This isn’t going to be anything close to a Les Steckel year, regardless of the record. That season got totally out of hand.

  2. CalVkg says:

    oh, jeez! les would hafta get caught embezzling or sending pics of his favre to jen or snakin mrs. wilf or some such thing to get fired this year. a poor record won’t do it, in fact, it was kinda expected, at least by me it was

  3. bigjohnny84 says:

    I for one am very proud of Denzel for showing some stones here. It had to be extremely hard for him to sack the worm killer given their history. But hey he gave Don a chance when pretty much no one else would so Don should just say thank you, count his money and go away quietly.

  4. Gary says:

    What ever happenned to Fran T? I havnt heard a word from him in the sports news since he bashed Favre into the dirt for coming to Minny to play. Did they kick him out of the sports world for being stupid, or is he still in hiding after Favre almost took us to the SB that year?

    • aaron rodgers says:

      He’s been in repeated trouble for fraud – he has disgraced himself and his legacy.

      I guess in MN is you snort enough cocaine and play with the team that looked stoooooopid in 4 souper bowls, the put you on the supreme court.

      But you lead a bunch of ragtags to the championship game and carry the team for more than 3 and 1/2 quarters and lose because the refs won’t throw flags on obvious late hits that they would never let tom brady or myself take, then they make you a goat.

      You will all be able to forget about this soon anyhow. Team is going to LA next year anyhow.

  5. Randy Perrin says:

    0% chance Leslie gets canned this year

    • Skol12 says:

      Dont say that! Be optimistic, it could and should happen, leslie is an idiot I’ve said that since 09.

      • B. Grant says:

        Disagree. Thank you.

        • Skol12 says:

          Let me guess, you miss chilly too? Frazier is a downgrade from childress. Only thing he does well is uhhh, I can’t think of anything, oh wait he can evaluate defensive ends well!

          • B. Grant says:

            Sorry, Skol, I just don’t see how anyone could have possibly make an observation that Frazier is an idiot in this short period of time. It is the rare exception that a coach can walk in and start to win, especially so when you see what Leslie inherited mid-year last year. We have a major issue at the most important position in FB, the QB, through no fault of Leslie, and significant issues at the very critical location of offensive line, again through no fault of Leslie’s. Both of those positions were not given their due attention by Chili, and that is what Leslie is dealing with.

            In my estimation, he displays the kind of approach that is needed to turn around a club with such glaring needs. He is unflappable, has made some very tough decisions, and has sent the message that the same rules apply to all players. This stage isn’t about X’s and O’s and scores. Its about establishing a culture.

          • Gary says:

            Skol, Im sure you wont read this til sometime this afternoon being you were up til 4am. Im guessing your a packer fan posing as a Vikes fan. Im also guessing you put your age after your name. With that said, we can only hope your mom changes her password to keep you off her computer

          • Skol12 says:

            Gary, Nice to know you can add some real intellect to this conversation. I am also up all night working as a LEO, which gets boring out in the country so I am on my phone a lot yes. With that said, please think before you speak next time.

            Now Coach,

            I am not making this determination based on this season alone (grant it I had higher hopes for Frazier than he has shown) but I have not liked Frazier since he was hired as our defensive coordinator. I understand what your saying about how he inherited chillys mess, but he has made it worse IMO. He reached on a noodle-armed quarterback (Matt Cassell 2.0 anybody?) we would have been better served trading down or taking Nate Soldier/Gabe Carimi/Prince Amukamura and picking up Ryan Mallett whom I believe will be the best QB out of this draft if he gets to start.

            Other than the whole draft mess, I also believe Frazier has been overrated since he has been here. Tomlin built us the best DL in the country, and Frazier did nothing to improve it, nor did he improve arguably the worst secondary in the NFL (#1 run def and 28th vs the pass, seriously?). I just believe that he shouldn’t have gotten as much credit as he did for running a very on par defense.

            I did have hope for him when he was hired, but it has been slipping away quickly and once he decided to stand by McNabb after the third blown lead, it was gone as should be Leslie.

          • B. Grant says:

            Fair enough, Skol. I will admit that Leslie has some proving to do, and he has not done everything right so far, a point I’m sure he would agree with. I was certainly not pleased with some of our defense over the past few years either, but I think at least part of the issue was that he wasn’t calling all the shots he may have wanted, although I certainly don’t know that for a fact. I happen to be one who thinks he will eventually do well as a head coach, and that his choice of the QB of the future is a good one, but only time will tell. I hope he is given that time, and feel he has earned it.

          • B. Grant says:

            And Gary, Skol is no Packer fan. He’s definitely one of us, so you’ll wanna back off your comment just a tad. We’re all headin’ in the same direction, just seeing different routes on the map.

          • Gary says:

            Sorry Skol12, and coach, I guess reading them posts from that arron rodgers gave me the thought he just may be 1 of them impersonating……but………Skol…..Frazier is not a downgrade of Chilly….and here is why, its very simple…….Frazier is a nice person…..If the team dont go anywhere for a while, at least the young guys on the team got experience of what its like to be treated like a human being. I like Frazier because he reminds me of Tony Dungy, he is just a nice man…..Chilly yelled and screamed at everyone all the time like they were a piece of trash…Almost like he was more concerned about keeping his job was more important than having the young players growing up to be, well, nice people…Yes, we all want to win, but winning at life is far bigger than winning a game that is only played 16 times a year….

        • Skol12 says:

          I agree, I thought chilly was a “d-bag” but I don’t see Leslie as a winner. I see him as more of a Caldwell than Dungy. I also don’t think Dungy was that great of a coach either, Matt Millen could have won a super bowl in 10 years with Peyton Manning at the helm.

          My main complaint with Frazier is that he does remind me of childress in a way. He refuses to admit mistakes (McNabb, reaching on Ponder, cutting McKinnie, not taking responsibility for the 2nd half collapses), he reached on a quarterback in his first year that he is going to spend years trying to make his guy(T Jack…), and he has several stars in their prime who will be old when he is fired or actually starts to win Winfield/Pat Williams/Steve Hutch/Birk/McKinnie/EJ Henderson wasted their primes with chilly, and now Jared/Peterson/Harvin/Greenway will be wasted by Frazier.

          I may be wrong, and hope I am but I don’t see us competing in the NFC North for 3 years, which will put most of our studs in their prime right now into their 30’s.

          Either way, Lets finish the season perfect(10-0 and make the playoffs hopefully or 0-10 and grab luck!)

          • Gary says:

            Ok, Skol12, OK. Take a deep breath… and another… now slowly back away from your keyboard… that’s it… slowly… slowly. Now, put away all the sports magazines (yes, even the SI Swimsuit edition) and turn off any ESPN channels that might be running in the background. Next, focus on consuming some sort of beverage that is not alcoholic-based (don’t rule out water as a possibility) and some sort of food product that does not come from a bag or pizza box. Think of things like apples, soup, a sandwich, etc. (If you have to go to the grocery store at this point, do it.) Now, sit down and relax in any piece of furniture that is not currently facing the television or computer. Look hard, there must be one somewhere. Finally, turn on a public radio station and close your eyes. You should feel better in no time.

            You’re welcome. We bloggers are here for each other.
            Thanks Coach!

  6. aaron rodgers says:

    Interesting speculation here, but you are dogding the biggest issue that is on the minds of viking fan’s who want to know:

    WHY DOES THEIR HOME TEAM SUCK SO MUCH AT LIFE?

    • Jared Allen says:

      Hey Aaron,

      I’ve wanted to ask you for a while. With you and clay, who is the pitcher and who’s the catcher. And if your the pitcher do you pull his hair?

      • aaron rodgers says:

        jared, you little girl. I will spank you in front of your hometown fans and make you cry just like when your daddy did.

        Then I will make you get down on your knees and proclaim to the world that you are not worthy to even carry my urine.

        And then I will spank you like your daddy did one more time just to show you I can.

        • Stonginator says:

          N-I-C-E you are what . . . In 6th grade . . . or maybe 7th.
          Your name is really Stewie right. And you are proud of it . . . RIGHT?

          • Gary says:

            He is 1 of the privledged prisoners in the Wisconsin Department of Correction who get to use a computer, and is still trying to get ahold of the little boys, which got him there to start with….If the webmaster can see this post, is there a way you can block that idiot from the site>

  7. Lost Viking says:

    Decision to put Ponder into the Bear game didn’t seem to be about McNabb performance. Game was out of hand and most agreed it was appropriate time to bring in a young QB.

    Did Ponder’s performance in 4th quarter influence yesterday’s decision. Pressure to move on from McNabb has been building. General dissatisfaction with QB play and ability to get the most out of the offence. There was likely ‘consultation’ with ownership but it has little financial impact.

    Maybe Frazier just decided there was no upside to standing pat for another couple of weeks. QB change needed for team to move forward. Certainly not a day to celebrate.

    • aaron rodgers says:

      moving on from mcnabb may seem like a good choice now, but in the end the best choice will be to move away from minnesota.

      In the meantime, I am gonna spank all those girly-men in purple and make them with their daddy would stop.

    • bisatc says:

      lost viking, I have to respectfully disagree with a few of your comments…. I believe it is a time to celebrate. Once again, we die-hard Vike fans have something to be excited about. And the decision to move on to the rookie has a huge financial impact….they need a over-taxed fanbase to fund a new stadium. It is more likely to happen if the team looks like it may have a bright future with new blood or if they stick with the under-achieving worm-killer?

  8. krugjr says:

    guys, get rid of this aaron preek, please, before we’re all gone

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