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Trading Adrian Peterson

Should the Vikings trade Adrian Peterson? Were the Lost characters just dead the whole time? How many licks does it take to get to the center of a Tootsie Pop? For the third, I would suggest well over 100. For the second, I lean no, although my Lost pedigree is in no way elite. As for the first of these great questions, I thoroughly disagree with Tom Powers’ take.

Maybe the Island was some spiritual halfway house...I don't really think the writers have a clue

Maybe the Island was some spiritual halfway house…I don’t even think the writers have a clue

To be fair, his point about running back decline is well taken. I understand why a team that looks like it must build for the future should try to realize the ‘cash’ value of a player who is dominant now, but won’t be in only a short period of time.  That being said, Adrian is a physical freak. Renowned orthopedic surgeon James Andrew’s has said as much just one year ago: “For this guy (Adrian) to have played as much football as he’s played his whole life, and not to have hardly any wear and tear, it’s incredible. I’ve never seen a football player, especially one who runs and cuts as much as he does, with a knee in that condition.” This doesn’t mean he will outrun father time forever, but rather that the race will likely be closer than most.

Further, the idea of repeating Jimmy Johnson’s Herschel Walker trick is optimistic. Consider this: In the past 5 drafts, a total of 10 running backs were taken in the first round. In the 5 drafts preceding the Herschel Walker deal, 28 running backs were taken over the first 32 picks.* That is but a snapshot of the running back recession. The best measure of running back value is the recent Trent Richardson trade. He yielded a first round pick for the Browns. Richardson, however, as strange as it may appear is a much more tradable asset.  This is a 23 year old, who still has major equity by virtue of being the number 3 pick but a year ago. There are those, such as the Colts front office, who still see the former Crimson Tide standout as the best running back prospect since Adrian Peterson and Darren McFadden (if not better). Best of all, over the next three years his cap figure ranges from 1.1 to 3.1 million. Peterson, on the other hand has five years of contract left with cap hits bouncing around from 13.9 to 16 million!** That is Tom Brady territory. Moreover, Tom Powers of the Pioneer Press is not alone in knowing about the swift decline of running backs. GMs are paid to know that kind of stuff.***

Even if Spielman could somehow net a late first round pick, what would the result be?  You could get Muhammad Wilkerson, but only by walking through a Jimmy Smith, Gabe Carimi and Derek Sherrod mine field.  Sure, there are All Pros like Duane Brown and Jonathan Joseph but just by skimming through past drafts, you can see that the likes of John McCargo, Robert Meachem, and Antoine Cason are equally if not more common. Thinking of our own Chris Cook should make the uncertain return palpable.

Adrian Peterson figures to be a much surer thing over the next 3 seasons. Further, whether Josh Freeman, some rookie or Ragnar is the long-term answer at QB, the single high coverage/8+ man boxes they can expect to face thanks to Adrian will definitely help them bed-in.

Trading Adrian is definitely an interesting take, and something worth thinking about – however painful it may seem. I just don’t think the reward is at all commensurate with what Peterson brings to the squad.

*The total only declines by 3 if you just count the then shorter first round.

** For full disclosure, Adrian’s contract is pretty “pay-as-you-go” so he is more cut-able than someone who got a $30,000,000 signing bonus (I’m looking at you Flacco).

***Not that it stops them from making stupid moves.


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7 Responses to “Trading Adrian Peterson”

  1. Fisher says:

    Peterson has more than a few quality season in him. A second prospect in the backfield is what is needed now, a complement to Peterson. Gerhart is more valuable as a trade commodity considering risk/reward and actual trade values weighed in against benefits of keeping a player. The only sure-fire positive to trading him would be the extra cap space. Draft picks can’t and won’t cover what he’s guaranteed to bring to the team on the field, and the work-ethic and leadership qualities he offers are irreplaceable and absolutely invaluable.

    Peterson is the definition of a franchise player. It doesn’t matter that he’s not a quarterback in this, the modern “quarterback means everything, everybody else is second” NFL. Trading him would be pitiful.

  2. purplereign57 says:

    The mere THOUGHT of trading All-Day is ludicrous and insane!! Like Fisher says, Peterson is a guaranteed
    commodity, and what he brings to the table is widely and openly known.
    Any NFL fan knows the capabilities of #28, and should he go up on the trading block, ( God forbid ), there would be 31 teams chomping at the bit.
    Minnesota could get a bunch of stuff for Purple Jesus. Still, the mere thought of the Vikings doing it is infinitely more idiotic than the Herschel Walker ever thought about being. If management was to EVER be that STUPID, I could NEVER BE A VIKING FAN AGAIN!! I live in NC, so I’d be a Panther fan from then on, and would do (all at once ), what I usually end up doing at the end of each season…taking SOMETHING…ANYTHING with the Viking logo on it and setting it on fire…simply because with each passing season, I grow more and more frustrated at the purple and gold. WILL THEY EVER GO TO A SUPER BOWL AND WIN IT?? AND DO IT IN MY LIFETIME, SO THAT I CAN WITNESS IT??

  3. Dunda Gin says:

    I gave this a thought before, but writing that it would bring a first rounder late is just negative. You want to set the bar there? You should not be a blogger. The point is relative, move him to where he can win….but the return has to be hella.

  4. southernvikesfan says:

    At this point, I think he would want to be traded. Don’t expect to see Allen back next year either. Vikes are the worst team in the league this year. Thank God we don’t play the Jags this year for some more embarrassment! Musgrave needs to go, Frazier needs to go, and the list goes on

    • purplereign57 says:

      @southernvikesfan…all of your points are valid. MAAAAYBEEE AP might want to be traded to a wining team, but, as you also say, management needs to clean house. Get rid of Musgrave, Williams, AND Frasier for starters. SOMEBODY HAS GOT TO find and bring in some new talented and experienced coaching to rise Minnesota up from the dead. Personally, and I am SURE Vikings fans would agree, we hope and pray that #28 wants to keep wearing the purple and gold. As for #69, I also expect him to walk, ( unless Minnesota offers him an exorbitant amount of cash that he just cannot refuse .)However, another team could offer him the same money, and my guess is that he would choose to go there. Ce la vie.
      I really just hope that the Wilf’s and company can manage to find

    • purplereign57 says:

      @southernvikesfan…all of your points are valid. MAAAAYBEEE AP might want to be traded to a wining team, but, as you also say, management needs to clean house. Get rid of Musgrave, Williams, AND Frasier for starters. SOMEBODY HAS GOT TO find and bring in some new talented and experienced coaching to rise Minnesota up from the dead. Personally, and I am SURE Vikings fans would agree, we hope and pray that #28 wants to keep wearing the purple and gold. As for #69, I also expect him to walk, ( unless Minnesota offers him an exorbitant amount of cash that he just cannot refuse .)However, another team could offer him the same money, and my guess is that he would choose to go there. Ce la vie.
      I really just hope that the Wilf’s and company can manage to find some new coaching talent that can light a fire under the Vikings’ asses, and make a damn winner out of the team, and at the least, gather a little respect, instead of laughter and ridicule for the team.

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